Last-mile Delivery Industry • Nigeria • 2026
The numbers here show the main forces shaping the sector today. How demand is growing, how connectivity is changing behavior, and how large the logistics market is becoming. This 2026 edition serves as a visual reference point for understanding where last-mile delivery in Nigeria stands right now, which according to Kenresearch is on its own worth over $230m and growing.
Quick stats
$8.53B
Projected Nigeria e-commerce revenue in 2024 (U.S. International Trade Administration / trade.gov).
$14.92B
Projected Nigeria e-commerce revenue by 2029 (CAGR ~11.82%).
50.58%
Internet penetration in Nov 2025 (reported from NCC data via TechCabal).
1.05%
Transport activities share of nominal GDP in Q2 2024 (NBS GDP report).
$11.66B
Nigeria freight & logistics market size (2026 estimate; Mordor Intelligence).
1. E-commerce Growth & The Maturing Nigerian Market
E-commerce revenue outlook (Nigeria) • 2024 → 2029 (projection)
Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Internet penetration trend (Nigeria) • 2025 (reported points)
Source: NCC data referenced in TechCabal (Nov 2025: 50.58%; Jan 2025: 45.61%).
Mobile connections as % of population (Jan 2024)
Source: DataReportal (GSMA Intelligence), Digital 2024: Nigeria.
2. Logistics Market & GDP contribution
Nigeria freight & logistics market size (estimate) • 2025 → 2031
Source: Mordor Intelligence.
NBS GDP: Transport activities share of nominal GDP • Q2 2023 vs Q2 2024
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) GDP report (Q2 2024).
| What the numbers imply | What it means for last-mile delivery |
|---|---|
| E-commerce growth keeps expanding parcel volume. | More orders means more delivery density in big cities, plus more pressure on fulfillment (sorting, dispatch, return handling). As social commerce grows, lots of “small sellers” enter the pipeline, and their biggest headache becomes reliable pickup + predictable ETA. |
| Connectivity (internet + smartphones) is still climbing. | Every bump in connectivity raises online discovery + ordering behavior. It also increases real-time expectations: customers want updates, proof of delivery, and fast support when something goes wrong. |
| Logistics market size indicates investment appetite. | When research firms project market growth, you usually see more entrants, more partnerships, and more tech enablement (routing, address intelligence, payment rails, warehousing). |
3. Key players in Nigeria’s last-mile ecosystem
Common categories
| Category | Examples | Typical role in last-mile |
|---|---|---|
| Local courier networks | City-based dispatch brands like Peng, rider networks, SMEs with hubs | Fast same-day delivery, pickups, intra-city errands, SME fulfillment support |
| National couriers | Large Nigerian courier brands like GIGL with interstate lines | Interstate parcel movement + last-mile drop-off in major cities |
| Global integrators | DHL, FedEx, UPS (and partners) | International express + premium B2B shipments |
| E-commerce logistics | Marketplaces and their delivery partners | Fulfillment, doorstep delivery, returns handling at scale |
Key Data Sources
Headline metrics used in charts
| Metric | Value | Year / Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria e-commerce revenue (projected) | $8.53B | 2024 | trade.gov (ITA) |
| Nigeria e-commerce revenue (projected) | $14.92B | 2029 | trade.gov (ITA) |
| Internet penetration | 45.61% | Jan 2025 | TechCabal (citing NCC) |
| Internet penetration | 50.58% | Nov 2025 | TechCabal (citing NCC) |
| Mobile connections as % of population | 90.7% | Jan 2024 | DataReportal (GSMA Intelligence) |
| Transport activities share of nominal GDP | 1.35% | Q2 2023 | NBS GDP report (Q2 2024, cites Q2 2023 comp) |
| Transport activities share of nominal GDP | 1.05% | Q2 2024 | NBS GDP report (Q2 2024) |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $10.95B | 2025 (base year) | Mordor Intelligence |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $11.66B | 2026 | Mordor Intelligence |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $15.97B | 2031 | Mordor Intelligence |
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