Industry snapshot • Nigeria • 2026
A data-driven snapshot of last-mile delivery in Nigeria. It brings together key indicators shaping the sector today: e-commerce growth, internet adoption, logistics market trends, operational constraints, and the companies active in the ecosystem in 2026.
2026 quick stats
$8.53B
Projected Nigeria e-commerce revenue in 2024 (U.S. International Trade Administration / trade.gov).
$14.92B
Projected Nigeria e-commerce revenue by 2029 (CAGR ~11.82%).
50.58%
Internet penetration in Nov 2025 (reported from NCC data via TechCabal).
1.05%
Transport activities share of nominal GDP in Q2 2024 (NBS GDP report).
$11.66B
Nigeria freight & logistics market size (2026 estimate; Mordor Intelligence).
1. E-commerce Growth & Market Demand
E-commerce revenue outlook (Nigeria) • 2024 → 2029 (projection)
Source: U.S. International Trade Administration
Internet penetration trend (Nigeria) • 2025 (reported points)
Source: NCC data referenced in TechCabal (Nov 2025: 50.58%; Jan 2025: 45.61%).
Mobile connections as % of population (Jan 2024)
Source: DataReportal (GSMA Intelligence), Digital 2024: Nigeria.
2. Logistics Market & GDP contribution
Nigeria freight & logistics market size (estimate) • 2025 → 2031
Source: Mordor Intelligence.
NBS GDP: Transport activities share of nominal GDP • Q2 2023 vs Q2 2024
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) GDP report (Q2 2024).
| What the numbers imply | What it means for last-mile delivery |
|---|---|
| E-commerce growth keeps expanding parcel volume. | More orders means more delivery density in big cities, plus more pressure on fulfillment (sorting, dispatch, return handling). As social commerce grows, lots of “small sellers” enter the pipeline, and their biggest headache becomes reliable pickup + predictable ETA. |
| Connectivity (internet + smartphones) is still climbing. | Every bump in connectivity raises online discovery + ordering behavior. It also increases real-time expectations: customers want updates, proof of delivery, and fast support when something goes wrong. |
| Logistics market size indicates investment appetite. | When research firms project market growth, you usually see more entrants, more partnerships, and more tech enablement (routing, address intelligence, payment rails, warehousing). |
3) What’s shaping last-mile delivery in Nigeria right now
Core drivers (what’s pushing growth)
The simple truth: more Nigerians buy online every year, and more sellers need a delivery partner that can do fast pickup, quick handoff, and clear communication—especially in Lagos-scale traffic.
Constraints (what still slows things down)
Most delivery delays in Nigeria are not because riders are lazy. It’s usually: wrong directions, unreachable phone numbers, last-minute “I’m not home,” heavy traffic, or safety issues on certain routes.
Operational reality check (why last-mile is hard)
| Problem | What it looks like on ground | What top operators do |
|---|---|---|
| Addressing | “Behind the blue gate near that big mango tree.” Works for locals, not scalable routing. | Landmark mapping, address verification calls, geo-pins, and rider familiarity by zone. |
| Failed delivery | Customer goes offline; rider waits; seller gets blamed. | Strict call protocol, short waiting windows, and return workflows. |
| COD risk | Buyer rejects item, or tries to renegotiate price at the door. | Pre-confirmation, clear refund/return policy, and “pay before dispatch” for repeat buyers. |
| Cost swings | Fuel and spare parts change fast, pricing stability becomes hard. | Zone-based pricing, batch pickups, route optimization, and tighter dispatch ops. |
4) Key players (who you’ll see in Nigeria’s last-mile ecosystem)
Common categories (not a ranking)
| Category | Examples you’ll recognize | Typical role in last-mile |
|---|---|---|
| Local courier networks | City-based dispatch brands, rider networks, SMEs with hubs | Fast same-day delivery, pickups, intra-city errands, SME fulfillment support |
| National couriers | Large Nigerian courier brands with interstate lines | Interstate parcel movement + last-mile drop-off in major cities |
| Global integrators | DHL, FedEx, UPS (and partners) | International express + premium B2B shipments |
| E-commerce logistics arms | Marketplaces and their delivery partners | Fulfillment, doorstep delivery, returns handling at scale |
If you want, we can add a clean “coverage map” section later (states + cities + service type), but that needs careful verification per operator so the page stays trustworthy.
5) Data table (for quick copy/paste + yearly updates)
Headline metrics used in charts
| Metric | Value | Year / Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigeria e-commerce revenue (projected) | $8.53B | 2024 | trade.gov (ITA) |
| Nigeria e-commerce revenue (projected) | $14.92B | 2029 | trade.gov (ITA) |
| Internet penetration | 45.61% | Jan 2025 | TechCabal (citing NCC) |
| Internet penetration | 50.58% | Nov 2025 | TechCabal (citing NCC) |
| Mobile connections as % of population | 90.7% | Jan 2024 | DataReportal (GSMA Intelligence) |
| Transport activities share of nominal GDP | 1.35% | Q2 2023 | NBS GDP report (Q2 2024, cites Q2 2023 comp) |
| Transport activities share of nominal GDP | 1.05% | Q2 2024 | NBS GDP report (Q2 2024) |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $10.95B | 2025 (base year) | Mordor Intelligence |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $11.66B | 2026 | Mordor Intelligence |
| Nigeria freight & logistics market size | $15.97B | 2031 | Mordor Intelligence |
key Sources
- U.S. International Trade Administration (trade.gov) – “Nigeria: Logistics Sector” (includes e-commerce revenue projections). Open
- National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) – GDP report (Q2 2024). In-text lines include: “Transport activities contributed 1.05% to Nominal GDP in Q2 2024 … 1.35% … Q2 2023”. Open PDF
- NCC referenced via TechCabal – internet penetration: 45.61% (Jan 2025) → 50.58% (Nov 2025). Open
- DataReportal (GSMA Intelligence) – “Digital 2024: Nigeria” (mobile connections as % of population). Open
- Mordor Intelligence – Nigeria Freight & Logistics market headline figures (2025–2031). Open
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